Retirement spending
The last chart gives the verdict; this one shows the process. Fix a withdrawal rate and trace every starting year's balance as its own line, then watch them diverge — same discipline, yet good starts die richer than they began while bad starts hit zero in year twelve. Retirement's defining risk was never the average return. It is the order returns arrive in: the first few years decide the next thirty.
Count the lines that hit zero and note which years they started from — that is this withdrawal rate's actual failure record. Then look at the fattest line: same rule, best-luck start, balance up severalfold. The width of the fan between them is the price of sequence risk. Drop the rate one notch and watch the fan tighten.
Withdrawal rate
Horizon
Key readings
Jump to a key start:
- Success rate (30-year)
- 94%
- Worst start
- 1966 (failed in year 26)
- Best start
- 1982 (ended 5.3×)
Data and limits
Every line is a robot that never bends the rule: no spending cuts, no side income, no bequest preference. Real people adapt, so real outcomes usually beat the worst line and fall short of the best one. The usual caveats — annual granularity, one dollar-denominated history, no taxes or fees — apply unchanged.
Portfolio math assumes annual rebalancing. Horizon is selectable: 20/30/40 years, default 30.
To see how long each rate lasts, revisit withdrawal rates.
Data are annual real (inflation-adjusted) returns; sources and definitions are documented in "Where the chart data comes from" on the methodology page. methodology page
Everything above is computed from historical data and your inputs. History does not guarantee the future. Not investment advice.
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