Portfolio library

Every portfolio is an attitude toward the future: some chase growth, some protect sleep. The numbers below all come from the same century of annual real returns, measured with the same yardstick, which is what makes them comparable. Open any portfolio to see its full temperament across seven charts: growth, drawdowns, rolling returns, the heat map, start-date sensitivity, safe withdrawal rates, and retirement spending.

"Simplified" means assets our data layer lacks (international stocks, TIPS, small-cap value) are folded into the nearest available proxy; see the methodology page for details.

This site's data layer does not yet include long-term Treasuries or broad commodities. Portfolio reconstructions therefore approximate: long-term Treasuries are proxied by the 10-year Treasury series (which understates duration risk), and short-term Treasuries by 3-month T-bills. Portfolios that require commodities are not listed yet. These approximations make backtests look somewhat tamer than the originals; treat the numbers as directional, not exact replicas.

All Stocks

US stocks 100%

Source: Benchmark

Real CAGR: +6.8%
Deepest drawdown: −54.8% (1928-1931)
Longest underwater period: 14 years (1999-2013)
Worst 10-year window: −3.8% (1999)
Best 10-year window: +17.9% (1949)
Ending real purchasing power (from 10,000): $6,144,468
4% rule success (30y): 93%

Growth Drawdowns Rolling Heat map Start date Withdrawal Spending

Classic 60/40

US stocks 60%
10-year Treasury 40%

Source: Traditional benchmark

Real CAGR: +5.1%
Deepest drawdown: −35.2% (1972-1974)
Longest underwater period: 13 years (1972-1985)
Worst 10-year window: −2.7% (1972)
Best 10-year window: +12.1% (1989)
Ending real purchasing power (from 10,000): $1,365,219
4% rule success (30y): 94%

Growth Drawdowns Rolling Heat map Start date Withdrawal Spending

Simple Three-Asset

US stocks 40%
10-year Treasury 40%
Gold 20%

Source: Common simplified mix

Real CAGR: +4.6%
Deepest drawdown: −22.0% (1945-1947)
Longest underwater period: 9 years (1936-1945)
Worst 10-year window: −1.6% (1939)
Best 10-year window: +8.3% (1982)
Ending real purchasing power (from 10,000): $790,945
4% rule success (30y): 99%

Growth Drawdowns Rolling Heat map Start date Withdrawal Spending

Permanent Portfolio

Proxy

US stocks 25%
Cash 25%
10-year Treasury 25%
Gold 25%

Source: Harry Browne (long bonds proxied by 10-year Treasuries)

Real CAGR: +3.5%
Deepest drawdown: −25.7% (1936-1948)
Longest underwater period: 19 years (1936-1955)
Worst 10-year window: −2.8% (1939)
Best 10-year window: +5.8% (1978)
Ending real purchasing power (from 10,000): $280,966
4% rule success (30y): 86%

Growth Drawdowns Rolling Heat map Start date Withdrawal Spending

Golden Butterfly

Proxy

US stocks 20%
US small cap 20%
Cash 20%
10-year Treasury 20%
Gold 20%

Source: Tyler / PortfolioCharts (bond and small-value proxies)

Real CAGR: +5.2%
Deepest drawdown: −29.7% (1936-1941)
Longest underwater period: 9 years (1945-1954)
Worst 10-year window: +1.5% (1937)
Best 10-year window: +7.6% (1928)
Ending real purchasing power (from 10,000): $1,493,503
4% rule success (30y): 100%

Growth Drawdowns Rolling Heat map Start date Withdrawal Spending

Pinwheel (simplified)

Proxy

US stocks 30%
US small cap 10%
Cash 10%
10-year Treasury 25%
US real estate 15%
Gold 10%

Source: PortfolioCharts Pinwheel, simplified with missing international stocks folded into US stocks

Real CAGR: +4.7%
Deepest drawdown: −24.7% (1936-1941)
Longest underwater period: 8 years (1936-1944)
Worst 10-year window: +0.5% (1969)
Best 10-year window: +7.5% (1949)
Ending real purchasing power (from 10,000): $873,373
4% rule success (30y): 100%

Growth Drawdowns Rolling Heat map Start date Withdrawal Spending

Conservative 30/70

US stocks 30%
Cash 15%
10-year Treasury 55%

Source: Traditional conservative mix

Real CAGR: +3.3%
Deepest drawdown: −29.2% (1972-1981)
Longest underwater period: 13 years (1972-1985)
Worst 10-year window: −3.0% (1972)
Best 10-year window: +9.8% (1982)
Ending real purchasing power (from 10,000): $245,957
4% rule success (30y): 81%

Growth Drawdowns Rolling Heat map Start date Withdrawal Spending

Swensen (simplified)

Proxy

US stocks 50%
10-year Treasury 30%
US real estate 20%

Source: David Swensen personal portfolio, simplified for missing international stocks and TIPS

Real CAGR: +4.6%
Deepest drawdown: −30.5% (1972-1974)
Longest underwater period: 12 years (1972-1984)
Worst 10-year window: −2.2% (1965)
Best 10-year window: +9.7% (1989)
Ending real purchasing power (from 10,000): $795,028
4% rule success (30y): 94%

Growth Drawdowns Rolling Heat map Start date Withdrawal Spending

All eight recipes in one table: the portfolio matrix

How do these map to mainland China tickers? See the asset mapping.