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Start-date sensitivity

The heat map gives the panorama; this chart takes one slice. Fix a holding period of N years, then line up the annualized real return of every possible starting year. It answers "how much of this is luck": same discipline, same portfolio, different start — the width of that band is the price of luck.

Pick a holding period, and the bars show each starting year's outcome. Mind both ends: the worst start defines the floor you must be able to survive, and the best start should never become your expectation. Lengthen the holding period and the bars flatten toward each other — the only legitimate way to shrink luck.

Asset weights

Weight total: 100%

The calculation normalizes the current mix to 100%.

Holding period

−3%0%+12%Started in 1928, held until 1937: +4.3% annualizedStarted in 1929, held until 1938: +3.9% annualizedStarted in 1930, held until 1939: +4.4% annualizedStarted in 1931, held until 1940: +4.7% annualizedStarted in 1932, held until 1941: +5.1% annualizedStarted in 1933, held until 1942: +4.4% annualizedStarted in 1934, held until 1943: +3.0% annualizedStarted in 1935, held until 1944: +3.8% annualizedStarted in 1936, held until 1945: +3.3% annualizedStarted in 1937, held until 1946: −0.5% annualizedStarted in 1938, held until 1947: +1.6% annualizedStarted in 1939, held until 1948: −0.3% annualizedStarted in 1940, held until 1949: +0.9% annualizedStarted in 1941, held until 1950: +2.6% annualizedStarted in 1942, held until 1951: +5.3% annualizedStarted in 1943, held until 1952: +6.1% annualizedStarted in 1944, held until 1953: +4.8% annualizedStarted in 1945, held until 1954: +6.9% annualizedStarted in 1946, held until 1955: +6.7% annualizedStarted in 1947, held until 1956: +9.0% annualizedStarted in 1948, held until 1957: +8.8% annualizedStarted in 1949, held until 1958: +11.0% annualizedStarted in 1950, held until 1959: +9.9% annualizedStarted in 1951, held until 1960: +9.1% annualizedStarted in 1952, held until 1961: +9.9% annualizedStarted in 1953, held until 1962: +8.3% annualizedStarted in 1954, held until 1963: +9.5% annualizedStarted in 1955, held until 1964: +7.4% annualizedStarted in 1956, held until 1965: +6.2% annualizedStarted in 1957, held until 1966: +5.3% annualizedStarted in 1958, held until 1967: +7.0% annualizedStarted in 1959, held until 1968: +5.1% annualizedStarted in 1960, held until 1969: +3.3% annualizedStarted in 1961, held until 1970: +3.2% annualizedStarted in 1962, held until 1971: +2.6% annualizedStarted in 1963, held until 1972: +3.9% annualizedStarted in 1964, held until 1973: +1.0% annualizedStarted in 1965, held until 1974: −2.6% annualizedStarted in 1966, held until 1975: −1.8% annualizedStarted in 1967, held until 1976: +0.4% annualizedStarted in 1968, held until 1977: −1.5% annualizedStarted in 1969, held until 1978: −2.3% annualizedStarted in 1970, held until 1979: −1.2% annualizedStarted in 1971, held until 1980: −1.0% annualizedStarted in 1972, held until 1981: −2.7% annualizedStarted in 1973, held until 1982: −1.6% annualizedStarted in 1974, held until 1983: +0.9% annualizedStarted in 1975, held until 1984: +4.3% annualizedStarted in 1976, held until 1985: +5.0% annualizedStarted in 1977, held until 1986: +5.4% annualizedStarted in 1978, held until 1987: +6.2% annualizedStarted in 1979, held until 1988: +7.6% annualizedStarted in 1980, held until 1989: +9.8% annualizedStarted in 1981, held until 1990: +8.7% annualizedStarted in 1982, held until 1991: +11.7% annualizedStarted in 1983, held until 1992: +10.1% annualizedStarted in 1984, held until 1993: +9.9% annualizedStarted in 1985, held until 1994: +8.9% annualizedStarted in 1986, held until 1995: +9.2% annualizedStarted in 1987, held until 1996: +8.4% annualizedStarted in 1988, held until 1997: +10.8% annualizedStarted in 1989, held until 1998: +12.1% annualizedStarted in 1990, held until 1999: +10.7% annualizedStarted in 1991, held until 2000: +11.0% annualizedStarted in 1992, held until 2001: +8.3% annualizedStarted in 1993, held until 2002: +6.7% annualizedStarted in 1994, held until 2003: +7.3% annualizedStarted in 1995, held until 2004: +8.3% annualizedStarted in 1996, held until 2005: +5.7% annualizedStarted in 1997, held until 2006: +5.4% annualizedStarted in 1998, held until 2007: +3.7% annualizedStarted in 1999, held until 2008: +0.2% annualizedStarted in 2000, held until 2009: +0.4% annualizedStarted in 2001, held until 2010: +1.6% annualizedStarted in 2002, held until 2011: +2.7% annualizedStarted in 2003, held until 2012: +4.6% annualizedStarted in 2004, held until 2013: +4.5% annualizedStarted in 2005, held until 2014: +5.2% annualizedStarted in 2006, held until 2015: +5.2% annualizedStarted in 2007, held until 2016: +5.0% annualizedStarted in 2008, held until 2017: +5.8% annualizedStarted in 2009, held until 2018: +6.9% annualizedStarted in 2010, held until 2019: +8.0% annualizedStarted in 2011, held until 2020: +8.4% annualizedStarted in 2012, held until 2021: +8.7% annualizedStarted in 2013, held until 2022: +5.0% annualizedStarted in 2014, held until 2023: +5.0% annualizedStarted in 2015, held until 2024: +4.9% annualizedStarted in 2016, held until 2025: +5.9% annualized192819722016
Chart: real annualized return by start year for a fixed holding period.

Key readings

Worst start
1972 (−2.7%)
Best start
1989 (+12.1%)
Median start
+5.2%

Data and limits

Neighboring windows overlap heavily, so these are not independent trials; the sample is still that one history. All the caveats on real returns, annual granularity, and proxied assets apply unchanged.

Portfolio math assumes annual rebalancing.

Data are annual real (inflation-adjusted) returns; sources and definitions are documented in "Where the chart data comes from" on the methodology page. methodology page

Everything above is computed from historical data and your inputs. History does not guarantee the future. Not investment advice.