Withdrawal rates
This chart answers retirement planning's first question: how much can a portfolio pay out each year without the money dying before you do? The method is dumb and honest: every historical starting year lives the whole script — withdraw a percentage in year one, raise it with inflation every year after, and see whether the portfolio survives 30 years. The chart shows, for each withdrawal rate, how long the worst-luck start survived and what share of all starts made it the full 30 years.
Find the highest rate at which even the worst start survived 30 years — that is this portfolio's historical safe withdrawal rate, and it is exactly how the famous "4% rule" was originally derived from US stock and bond data. Under this site's annual-data version, the classic 60/40 lands nearer 3.5% — more conservative than the folklore 4%, and the gap is itself the lesson. Each notch to the right adds failed starting years: you either accept the luck bet, save a bigger pile, or spend less.
Horizon
Data and limits
This is the worst of the past, not a floor for the future: the sample is one dollar-denominated history, and the future is allowed to be worse. Annual data, no taxes or fees, and a rule that never cuts spending in bad years all tilt the numbers optimistic. Use it to compare portfolios and size the ballpark, not to set spending to a decimal place.
Portfolio math assumes annual rebalancing. Horizon is selectable: 20/30/40 years, default 30.
To watch each start play out, open the spending trajectories.
Data are annual real (inflation-adjusted) returns; sources and definitions are documented in "Where the chart data comes from" on the methodology page. methodology page
Everything above is computed from historical data and your inputs. History does not guarantee the future. Not investment advice.
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